It is ‘premature’ to think about a Fed pause。






Despite the slowdown in growth, the labor market remains extremely tight, with the
unemployment rate at a 50-year low, job vacancies still very high, and wage growth elevated.Job gains have been robust, with employment rising by an average of 289,000 jobs per month over August and September.


That’s why we say in our statement that in determining the pace of future increases in the target range, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation.



We still have some ways to go and incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected,


That’s why I’ve said it’s appropriate to slow the pace of increases,So that time is coming. And it may come as soon as the next meeting or the one after that. No decision has been made.

It is very premature to be thinking about pausing. People when they hear ‘lags’ think about a pause. It is very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hikes. We have a ways to go,


We’ve always said it was going to be difficult, but to the extent rates have to go higher and stay higher for longer it becomes harder to see the path. It’s narrowed. I would say the path has narrowed over the course of the last year.